Why This Bill Needs To Crash & Burn

With the House health care vote tomorrow likely to go in favor of Democrats, Republicans and conservatives are doubling down on their pressure on Democrats. We cannot let up until the final vote is cast. The vote is expected to happen tomorrow afternoon, so please call offices and spread around as much as you can just why we should oppose this latest boondoggle. I have gathered information from a variety of sources, and hopefully they can be of assistance.

Regarding the Congressional Budget Office score and other budget concerns:

Rep. Paul Ryan (R-WI) pointed was on Fox yesterday morning, and he pointed out some flaws in the CBO’s score of the House bill. They include accusations that the bill double-counts Medicare cuts, double-counts taxes, and doesn’t include the Doc Fix which, according to CBO in a report released after the bill’s score, would raise the deficit:

You asked about the total budgetary impact of enacting the reconciliation proposal (the amendment to H.R. 4872), the Senate-passed health bill (H.R. 3590), and the Medicare Physicians Payment Reform Act of 2009 (H.R. 3961). CBO estimates that enacting all three pieces of legislation would add $59 billion to budget deficits over the 2010–2019 period.

Under current law, Medicare’s payment rates for physicians’ services will be reduced by about 21 percent in April 2010 and by an average of about 2 percent per year for the rest of the decade. H.R. 3961 would increase those payment rates by 1.2 percent in 2010 and would restructure the sustainable growth rate mechanism beginning in 2011. Those changes would result in significantly higher payment rates for physicians than those that would result under current law. CBO estimates that enacting H.R. 3961, by itself, would cost about $208 billion over the 2010–2019 period. (That estimate reflects the enactment of two short-term extension acts, which lowered the cost in 2010 by about $2 billion compared with CBO’s estimate of November 4, 2009.)…

CBO estimates that enacting H.R. 3961 together with those two bills would add $59 billion to budget deficits over the 2010–2019 period. That amount is about $10 billion less than the figure that would result from summing the effects of enacting the bills separately. The $10 billion difference occurs primarily because H.R. 3590 and the reconciliation proposal would modify how the government’s payments to Medicare Advantage plans are set.

Secondly, the CBO score assumes the following:

CBO has not extrapolated estimates further into the future because the uncertainties surrounding them are magnified even more. However, in view of the projected net savings during the decade following the 10-year budget window, CBO anticipates that the reconciliation proposal would probably continue to reduce budget deficits relative to those under current law in subsequent decades, assuming that all of its provisions would continue to be fully implemented.

What are some of these provisions? They include hundreds of billions of dollars in Medicare cuts that Democrats will immediately move into covering the “Donut Hole.” So, as Ryan noted, the numbers are both double-counted and, furthermore, should we really believe Democrats are going to cut Medicare?

Secondly, the CBO never says the bill will save $1.3 trillion in the second decade, despite what Speaker Pelosi (D-CA) and President Obama are claiming. If you read the letter sent to Pelosi, the CBO says the savings might, if things go really, really well, end up being equal to, or less than, a one-half of one percent of GDP in savings. Unless Democrats are expecting a $130 trillion GDP for America, their numbers are wrong.

Last, but certainly not least, according to The Washington Examiner’s Byrok York, the bill includes the CLASS Act, which is a long-term care program that the CBO accounts for in its analysis. The problem? The CLASS Act is unaffordable in the long run, but the CBO only counts the intake of money, not the expenditures. Furthermore, it includes the Democrats’ student loan modifications, which is where much of the savings for the bill will come from. (Both of these points are explained in some detail here.) So, to summarize, the bill takes in a lot of money, but does not spend much of it for years. These and other budgetary concerns are analyzed quite well here, and by the Senate Budget Committee’s minority staff here.

I need to clarify, by the way, that I am not criticizing the CBO. They analyze what they are given by politicians, and so their numbers are sometimes necessarily incorrect. Blame the politicians- on both sides, yes, but in this case, the Democrats- for gaming the system so dishonestly. Furthermore, the CBO letter is a preliminary letter, which means its analysis is necessarily vague and has many suppositions. As Daniel Foster notes at The Corner, the final one is supposed to be out this weekend.

More bureaucracy and cost for Americans:

According to The Washington Examiner, the bill to be voted on would increase the number of IRS employees by over 16,000. So let me get this straight- we need more IRS employees? Well, I suppose they were doing such a good job with Geithner, Rangel, Daschle and the rest…

It gets worse, however. According to Americans for Tax Reform, the following occur in the bill:

• The number of new tax increases in the healthcare bill: 19
• The number of tax increases that unquestionably violate President Obama’s “firm pledge” not to raise “any form” of taxes on families making less than $250,000:  7
• The tax increase over the first decade if the healthcare bill becomes law: $497 billion
• The top federal tax rate on wages and self-employment earnings under this bill: 43.4%
• The annual tax hike for every man, woman, and child in America: $165
• The top federal tax rate on early distributions from HSAs under this bill: 59.6%

Next, according to Republican Representative Kevin Brady (R-TX) (H/T to the Examiner):

In addition to more complicated tax returns, families and small businesses will be forced to reveal further tax information to the IRS, provide proof of ‘government approved’ health care and submit detailed sales information to comply with new excise taxes.

Thirdly, there are a number of tax increases in the bill. Hundreds of billions of dollars worth, in fact, and they would hit those making less than $250,000 in some cases. Once again, the president is violating his pledge to not hit lower-income Americans. For some reason, Democrats continue to want to reduce the budget by increasing taxes. Or, to put it another way, they believe that hurting the economic growth of America is the way to go.

Fun Fact: Caterpillar will have its costs increased by $100 million in the first year of ObamaCare.

Special Deals- Remember, President Obama doesn’t care about the process

Senator Tom Coburn (R-OK) made a Profile In Courage statement Thursday that should send chills down the backs of every Democrat who changes from a “No” vote to a “Yes” vote in the House tomorrow. He threatened to- brace yourselves- hold them accountable, as well as those Democrats who accept deals for their “Yes” votes. Check out the video of Coburn’s statement here.

Unfortunately, some Democrats haven’t paid attention, it seems. Fox News reports a number of states getting special deals, including North Dakota, where last year’s “Yes” vote Earl Pomeroy is from. However, Pomeroy has a tough race this year, and is rumored to be concerned about the abortion elements of the House vote. Is he being bribed with the North Dakota assistance? Considering his is the only state with a loophole regarding the nationalization of the student loan industry (the bank in North Dakota is the only state-run bank in the nation), and he was named Chairman of the Social Security Subcommittee after the Rangel dust-up…I’d say it’s possible. (Full disclosure: my uncle is Pomeroy’s Chief of Staff, which is why I am saying it’s possible, not definite. My uncle wouldn’t work for a bought-and-paid-for Congressman, as my uncle is an honest guy.) The exemption may be pulled, however, as Democratic North Dakota Senator Kent Conrad is asking for it to be eliminated to avoid controversy.

Other deals noted by Fox include:

• Retains $300 million in extra Medicaid aid for Louisiana, which had helped win support for the Senate health bill from Sen. Mary Landrieu, D-La. The state is still struggling to recover from Hurricane Katrina.
• Keeps $100 million included in the Senate bill that is expected to go for a public hospital in Connecticut sought by Dodd, who is retiring.
• Preserves language won by Baucus permitting many of the 2,900 residents of Libby, Mont., to qualify for Medicare benefits. Some of them have asbestos-related diseases from a now-shuttered mine.
• Provides an additional $8.5 billion over the next decade for 11 states and the District of Columbia to help them pay for the more generous Medicaid assistance they have been providing low-income residents. These states are Arizona, Delaware, Hawaii, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, New York, Pennsylvania, Vermont, Washington and Wisconsin.
• Maintains a Senate-approved provision giving extra money for hospitals and doctors in North and South Dakota, Montana and Wyoming.

Another possible deal is noted by the House Republican Conference on their website, where water regulation changes are being accused of acting as a quid-pro-quo. Is it true? We cannot be certain, but the water legislation comes dangerously close to two California Democrats’ support for the bill.

I guess I don’t understand- Americans are against the bill, against the process…and still Democrats can’t get the message?

In Short:

When it comes down to it, this bill is including the deals typically denigrated by Americans as normal in Congress; it raises the deficit significantly, at an estimated cost of over two trillion dollars; raises taxes on Americans; and continues the over-regulation of American health care. These and other reasons are why we need to keep pushing this over the next 22 hours, convincing our fellow Americans to tell their Democratic representatives to vote against the bill. Here is a partial list of people to call, and here is a lengthier one.

Destruction Among The Democrats

I was at my internship with Laura Ingraham earlier today, and as part of the job I had to look up information regarding the falling house of cards that is the Democratic Party and its domestic initiatives. Below is what I found:

1. President Obama’s Transportation Security Administration nominee has resigned after Senator Jim DeMint (R-SC) and other Republicans held up his nomination due to his lying to Congress.

2. Senator Jim Webb (D-VA) is calling for health care voting to halt until newly-elected Senator Brown (R-MA) is seated.

3. White House officials and House Democrats see things differently on health care and the ramifications of the Brown election.

4. Senator Evan Bayh (D-IN) may very well have Rep. Mike Pence (R-IN) as a challenger this year, despite his calling out the left today.

5. White House advisor David Axelrod and White House Press Secretary Robert Gibbs don’t get it.

Below is what I have found since:

6. Suddenly, deadlines aren’t so important to President Obama.

7. Moderate Scott Brown (R-MA) and conservative Jim DeMint (R-SC) are on the same page, it appears. Kind of makes Democrats look like the ones who are purging their own ranks.

8. Representative Barney Frank (D-MA) is kinda-sorta-not-really calling for health care reform to start over.

Update:

9. Representative Earl Pomeroy (D-ND) has been rumored to be prepared to resign from Congress if the health care debate keeps going, and is being courted by a large insurance organization.

10. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) is being hammered by the liberal members of her caucus.

None of this is to take away from the fact that Republicans still have work to do in creating a big tent- though Ed Morrissey continues to do great work regarding that goal- and that the Tea Partiers and many other Americans are as angry at the Republican Party as they are at the Democratic Party. While I think the Republicans will win several Senate seats, and 20-30 House seats, I also think the divisions between conservative Republicans and moderate Republicans, and between social conservatives and fiscal/economic conservatives, will hand several House races and at least one or two Senate seats to the Democrats in 2010. Of course, if President Obama keeps using his waning political capital to help Democrats in tough elections, perhaps Republicans will be fortunate enough to have another two years to get their own house in order before the 2012 elections.

(Somewhat) Breaking: Senator Dorgan (D-ND) To Retire

From The Washington Post’s?The Fix: “Democrats acknowledged privately that Dorgan’s decision was a significant blow although they quickly pivoted to note that the party would field a candidate. The only obvious name for Democrats is Rep. Earl Pomeroy who has held the state’s at-large seat since 1992 when Dorgan ascended to the Senate.”

From the National Republican Senatorial Committee: “”North Dakota was always going to be a competitive seat for the Democrats to defend, and Senator Dorgan?s retirement now provides us with another excellent pick-up opportunity for Republicans in 2010. This development is indicative of the difficult environment and slumping approval ratings that Democrats face as a result of their out of control tax-and-spend agenda in Washington, and we fully intend to capitalize on this opportunity by continuing to recruit strong candidates who can win these seats in November.” – Brian Walsh, NRSC Communications Director”?

This should be really interesting. My uncle is the Chief of Staff for Representative Earl Pomeroy (D-ND),?and so I have a more-than-passing interest in the state’s politics.?My friend Shawn, a resident of North Dakota, is one of many who thinks?governor John?Hoeven is?the strongest candidate for Republicans to run this year. Hopefully, he does, and sends the Democrats a strong message in North Dakota that voting for Democratic initiatives like this health care reform effort is a bad thing. (Both senators?from the state- Dorgen and Conrad- and Pomeroy voted for their respective chamber’s bill.)

The Party of ?No, But Here?s A Better Idea?

Since the election of President Obama, the Democrats have been very effective at portraying the Republican Party as the ?Party of No.? Depending on your political persuasion, this could be completely true, completely false or somewhere in the middle.

In the last couple of weeks, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) has been hammered by Erick Erickson of RedState and Michelle Malkin for not fighting to the very finish on the recent Senate passage of a health care reform bill. On the one hand, these criticisms are of delaying tactics would only have slowed the vote by twelve hours, which would have done nothing in the halls of Congress but would have, as Ed Morrissey points out, given the media less time to cover the vote?s aftermath. On the other hand, if the Republican leadership had held firm on the many opportunities they had to slow things down, for example by following Senator Judd Gregg?s (R-NH) advice, and Senator Tom Coburn?s (R-OK) wish to read every part of the Senate bill, among other tactics to slow the bill, senators would have had to go home for Christmas a) without a bill, and b) to face their constituents, the majority of whom dislike the Democratic versions of health care reform and whom are increasingly against them as time goes on.

Senators Gregg, Coburn and Jim DeMint (R-SC), among many others, have been vilified for their articulate and unyielding opposition to health care reform and other Democratic measures. However, they are also the poster children for what Republicans should be about- namely, being the party of ?No, But Here?s A Better Idea.? All of these senators, along with other Republicans, have jammed the Democrats but also offered their own solutions to the various issues facing America. They have also worked with Democrats in a bipartisan fashion on a case-by-case basis.

When it comes to dispelling the myth that Republicans have been, and are being, merely obstructionists, let’s start with Senator Judd Gregg. On the one hand, Gregg voted for Secretary Geithner?s nomination, nearly accepted a position as President Obama?s Commerce Secretary, offered support for the bipartisan Wyden-Bennett bill and has worked with Democrat Kent Conrad (D-ND) on a debt commission. On the other, Gregg has hammered Obama on debt, passed around a virtual handbook for Republican obstructionism and taken the lead on opposing Democratic reconciliation. Additionally, however, Gregg has offered his own bill as an alternative to the Democratic proposals.

Senator DeMint is probably most famous for his Waterloo statement and his numerous delaying tactics on health care reform (see here and here for examples). However, he has also worked with self-declared socialist Independent Bernie Sanders (I-VT) on halting the Bernanke nomination and bringing transparency to the Federal Reserve. As a representative of the Party of ?No, but here?s a better idea,? he too has put forth a health care alternative to the Democratic proposals.

Lastly, we have Senator Coburn. Coburn has slid in two gun amendments this year to two Democrat-supported bills, halting the DC voting bill in its tracks. He has also held up funding for veterans because he wanted to use unused stimulus funds for the benefits and loudly opposed the stimulus package. He also forced a reading of Senator Sanders? single-payer amendment to the Democratic bill. However, at the same time, he has maintained a friendship with President Obama, pushed a transparency bill with then-Senator Obama (D-IL) into law in 2006 and sponsored a Republican alternative to the Democratic health care bills on, of all places, Huffington Post. In fact, he wrote on Huffington Post not once but twice. This is a guy who clearly wants his message to get out to all Americans, not just his constituents or fellow conservatives.

Other ?No but here?s a better idea? Republicans include Representative Paul Ryan (R-WI), the numerous Republican co-sponsors of the Wyden-Bennett bill and Senator Lindsey Graham (R-SC).

The fact is that Republicans are trying to stop a very bad makeover of a massive portion of America in ways that swing from bad policy to unethical to unconstitutional. For an example of the latter, with respect to David Frum?s recent piece supporting the individual mandate?s constitutionality, he is wrong- an individual mandate is clearly unconstitutional. Other bad components include the Senate bill’s abortion funding, the House bill’s public option and the lack of legitimate tort reform in either bill.

Personally, I think Republicans should have fought tooth-and-nail for a post-Christmas vote on the Democratic health care reform bill in the Senate. They should have offered amendments, yes, as Frum has said- but they have a responsibility to stop the bill first and foremost. That is what the minority is supposed to do with a bill as bad as this one, with as little power as Republicans and conservatives have right now- stop the legislation cold and start over with a bill that includes conservative and free market principles and ideas. Some Republicans are just being the Party of No, but sometimes saying?saying?’no’ is necessary, despite what some Democrats may say.