Mitt Romney Wins NH Straw Poll: Duh…
A poll sponsored by ABC News and WMUR was released yesterday showing Former Governor Mitt Romney with a commanding lead over all of the other Republican Presidential candidates for 2012. Our friends over at Race42012 posted the numbers:
Mitt Romney 35%
Ron Paul 11%
Tim Pawlenty 8%
Sarah Palin 7%
Michele Bachmann 5%
Jim DeMint 5%
Herman Cain 34%
Chris Christie 3%
Rick Santorum 3%
Mitch Daniels 3%
Newt Gingrich 3%
Mike Huckabee 3%
Mike Pence 3%
Rudy Giuliani 2%
Judd Gregg 2%
Gary Johnson 2%
Other 2%
Donald Trump 1%
Haley Barbour 1%
Jon Huntsman 0%
John Thune 0%
There are 169 comments over at Race42012 about this poll. I don’t think anyone can really be surprised that Mitt Romney did so well; he was Governor of Massachusetts and this is New Hampshire that we are talking about. Perhaps we can get our resident New Hampshire…ian? to shed some light on what he takes out of these numbers. I for one know I am asking the question on everyone’s mind… where was Liz Cheney?
-rj
Interview With John Stephen, Republican Candidate for Governor in New Hampshire
Dustin Siggins: So, I guess my first question, it’s a pretty simple one- you’ve run for Congress in the past, and this is a very pro-Republican/pro-conservative year in Congress. Why run for governor? Yes, the tide is anti-incumbent, but New Hampshire has a tendency to buck trends, and Governor Lynch has won by two huge margins in his last two election runs.
John Stephen: Well, you know, my background and experience suits me well for running for governor. You know, I ran the largest state department, Health & Human Services, and was able to run it with fiscal discipline and return $143 million over four years, and kept my budget flat each year, and when you deal with Health & Human Services spending, you’ve gotta make sure that you take care of the people in need, but yet, if you can return value to the taxpayers, and be more efficient, that’s what people expect. And then I was also at the Department of Safety as Deputy Commissioner. I was the first Homeland Security Coordinator, and I’ve done a lot, you know, and I was Assistant Attorney General, prosecutor, Assistant Attorney General- appointed by Governor Gregg, and then appointed by Shaheen, who’s a senator, a U.S. Senator- she was governor at the time- a Democrat governor. Then I was appointed by Republican governor Craig Benson, and I’ve had governors on each side come to me and appoint me to positions.
In the last two years- roughly two years- I’ve been working as a health care consultant for a firm in Boston called The Lucas Group, and I have private companies I consult with, to help them grow, and to help them achieve success in terms of the bottom line, and I do a lot of consulting with venture capitalists, and things like that. It’s been a tough economy, as you know, but yet we’ve been working hard with private business. But then I also had the opportunity as head of our government team at The Lucas Group to work with three governors over the last couple years and help them save, in one case, in two cases, over a billion dollars, putting them on a road to savings of a billion dollars or more. And just by coming up with ideas that I know well in terms of efficiency. I started out in my mom and dad’s restaurant business, washing dishes, mopping floors, so I started out with a small business perspective- watching budgets, making sure we controlled spending. So I took that conservative- that fiscal conservative- thought process and values, the values I share, all the way to the government positions that I’ve held. And running for governor, is like, you gotta make sure you run it like a business. I helped other governors do that, but problems in Washington have come to New Hampshire. High taxes and spending, here in New Hampshire, are choking jobs, they’re hurting small businesses. We had this governor, in the last four years, has passes 84 new taxes- 84, in small New Hampshire? A 24% increase in spending? At the same time, I was working with other governors- one a Democrat in Illinois, with his Taxpayer Action Committee, and also Governor of South Carolina, helping re-engineer his state government. Employment commission and also helping the governor of Rhode Island get a health care waiver that saved millions of dollars for his state.
I had my hands in savings opportunities and seeing these governors in other states cut spending, seeing what’s coming ahead, knowing that you can’t tax your way out of a recession. At that point, a number of folks from the New Hampshire State Republican Committee contacted me, and I have two young daughters here, and I live here, I love this state, I was born in this state. This is not the same New Hampshire I was born and raised in. And I was contacted by folks from all over the state to take that experience that I’ve garnered, or gained, over the years, and bringing value to taxpayers, to come back to New Hampshire and do the same thing again, ‘cause now’s the time. We need to stop the spending, stop the out-of-control spending in New Hampshire, stop the excessive taxation that’s hurting our culture and our New Hampshire way of life, and you know- coming from Littleton, Dustin- New Hampshire’s a low-tax, limited-government state. Live Free or Die. We were the first state to declare its independence from Great Britain, the first colony, and we always pride ourselves on being first in the nation, well- I’m running so we can get back to the first in the nation, and showing the entire United States what it’s like being from New Hampshire. Independent, cutting spending, and also returning value to taxpayers.
DS: Which is great. My only question is, that’s what the guy ran on in 2006. I forget the guy’s name off the top of my head- he ran on a similar platform. I interviewed him for my campus paper [DS: Correction. I organized an event on my campus for the candidate, one Jim Coburn, and a campus news reporter interviewed the candidate. I apologize for my bad memory.] He got shellacked. Governor Lynch won a record re-election in the state. It was something like 74, or 76, percent. [DS: 74%-26% was the margin between Lynch and Coburn- I guess my memory improved.] And obviously now, it’s 2010, it’s a different year, different political culture. How do you plan on taking this and saying to New Hampshire, “Hey, the guy you voted for three times in a row isn’t the right guy?” And a lot of people, you know, 84 taxes, it’s hard for people to grab onto what that means-
JS: Well, first of all, when Governor Lynch ran against those other two candidates, we didn’t have the environment. Like you said, 84 new taxes and fees. We didn’t have an environment of a 24% increase in spending in four years. We didn’t have an environment where our limited liability companies in New Hampshire- which are the bedrock of New Hampshire’s small businesses- received an income tax passed by Governor Lynch during the deepest recession of our time. I mean, times have changed. And another thing is, Governor Lynch is running for an unprecedented fourth term. That’s unheard of in New Hampshire history. He’s had his chance, and we can’t afford two more years- and the people are responding. In the latest Rasmussen poll, the poll showed that 47% are supporting him on re-election. And that number is going down. He’s had 70% approval a little more than six months ago, so we’re starting to get our message out, and today- or as of the latest poll- he’s at 51% approval, which tells you, Dustin, his support is diminishing. What you had said was absolutely correct- those candidates, during those times, the message didn’t work, the fact is that people weren’t paying as much attention to what was going on in Concord, the liberal spendthrift agenda was starting to percolate, but it hadn’t come to the point where it actually was hitting their wallets and their pocketbooks.
Today, ask any person in New Hampshire that has legally registered a car how much they had to pay. Ask the guy from Rochester that has to go to work in Boston every day, how his toll prices have gone from five hundred dollars to $1,500 in four years. Ask Andy Crews, who owns AutoFair in Manchester- car dealership- who, he had some extra money a year ago to buy another dealership a year ago, and his accountant told him because of the LLC tax, not to buy the dealership. He would have been able to grow jobs- create jobs- and ask the 50,000 people in New Hampshire that are out of work today if they like what Governor Lynch has done the past few years. You know, it’s all about government being fiscally responsible and creating an environment- because government doesn’t create jobs- creating an environment so that small businesses can flourish and create jobs. And that’s what our campaign’s gonna be about- low taxes, limited government, creating an environment to grow jobs by having tax cuts on employers- and those are the things that Governor Lynch does not support. Those are ideas that Governor Lynch does not support. He has shown his penchant for big government, and so there is going to be a very stark contrast in New Hampshire now- believe it or not- and I don’t like to say this, but it’s true, according to the Tax Foundation, has the highest business tax rate in the country. Now when we start telling people en masse about this issue in New Hampshire, I believe strongly this is the last term of Governor Lynch.
DS: When I left New Hampshire, the spending was just starting to increase- I left in 2008. And I talked to Corey Lewandowski from Americans for Prosperity-
JS: Yes, Corey’s a good guy.
DS: And he explained to me how the LLC tax is only going to go on for a year, I believe- that it was only going to go on for a year, and it was going to be dropped because of opposition from New Hampshire citizens.
JS: Correct.
DS: So that’s at least a good thing, that that tax is going away. What would you say- and just briefly, I only have a couple more minutes with you- briefly, what’s the one tax that you would eliminate, and also, what’s a program you would cut to offset the revenue lost from cutting that tax? What’s a program you would cut or streamline?
JS: Well, first of all, I’m gonna be putting out a plan on Monday with a number of ideas, but I would definitely work to restructure and modernize state government. And one big area I would move forward on is managed care for Medicaid. And Anthem did a report a few months back that indicated we could save $300 million in New Hampshire a year- now, Dustin a year!- if we were able to have what 40 states have in this country- a Medicare managed-care product; which means, mainly, that the 150,000 (roughly) lives that in New Hampshire are on Medicaid- the people, that are on Medicaid- that they have to go through a gatekeeper, like we do for health insurance, like everyone else. Right now there is no gatekeeper. They go to emergency rooms if their child has a cold, or, you know, there’s no program like that. So that alone is one area. Then there are other areas where can consolidate functions- backroom functions- every department has HR, every department has business office, every office has attorneys- we are going to look at doing a lot of things that the private sector is doing in terms of efficiency. And I would work to eliminate the Business Enterprise Tax, which is hurting a lot of small businesses. And I would eliminate it for those businesses that pay taxes after their year-end shows a loss. Even if they lose money, they pay taxes in New Hampshire, which is just unconscionable, as far as I’m concerned.
Many of the other taxes that passed, most of them need to be looked at. And one that- I mean, there are many that I would roll back and repeal. But I would want to have a tax holiday for rooms and meals. We increased the rooms and meals tax by 12% under Governor Lynch just last year. I’d want to go back to no rooms and meals tax, zero, no tax, during certain periods of the year when we want to increase tourism during the slow periods. And I would be the first governor in this state to basically stand up and say, “No rooms and meals tax.” We’re going to look at restricting the tax code on businesses as well.
DS: And would that lead to an imbalance in the budget? I mean, I believe New Hampshire’s Constitution says it has to be a balanced budget, and so if you obviously cut taxes without cutting appropriate spending- you mentioned $300 million a couple of minutes ago- cutting all of these taxes, would you still have a balanced budget?
JS: Absolutely. Absolutely. Not only will- these tax cuts will stimulate job growth, they’ll help employers make more profit to give to their communities, employees, and the state, for the business profits tax. And what it will also do is start to create an environment where, overall, we’ll have more and more job growth through creation of new lines of business. People will start coming into this state. I think that’s important. But we’ll no longer have the highest business tax rate in the nation. We’re going to turn it around and have one of the lowest in the Northeast. That alone will stimulate job growth. And what will happen is people who are working outside the state will start thinking about coming back here, and more people will be working in New Hampshire, and that leads to more revenue. But also, you’ve got to control spending. Yes, the spending can be controlled. You absolutely can make reductions, even across the board. We’ll keep spending in check, balance the budget, and begin to restore the Rainy Day Fund. And when New Hampshire companies are going to Massachusetts- which I heard, throughout this campaign trail- they’re going to Massachusetts to do business rather than in New Hampshire, that’s a problem. And once you fix that problem, and you create jobs, New Hampshire will, once again, be the envy of the nation.
DS: Well, I guess I have one last question for you, and it’s not economics-related at all. The conflicts and the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq- as the governor, you’re in charge of the troops from New Hampshire, correct?
JS: That is correct.
DS: Do you support being in Iraq and Afghanistan, until at least the July 2007 deadline [DS: Clearly, I meant the 2011 deadline…I have no idea why I said “2007.”] and beyond that, if necessary? Do you believe that’s a worthy cause for New Hampshire citizens to be fighting over and dying for?
JS: As the Commander-in-Chief for the state, I’m gonna support the decisions made in Congress.
DS: Even despite the federalism that is allowed to you?
JS: I mean, first of all, I’m a big supporter of the 10th Amendment, and I believe strongly that we also need to have a strong national defense. And, you know, I’m going to work alongside and with the federal government to make that we follow the lead of the United States federal government in terms of national forces.
DS: Okay. Thank you very much
Where America Will End Up
I was checking out the online version of The New Hampshire Union Leader, and saw an article about NH Republican Judd Gregg’s effort to modify the tax code with Senator Ron Wyden (D-OR). I am not interested in any kind of progressive income tax, even the simplified one Gregg and Wyden offer, so I skimmed through it quickly.
Below the article, however, I ran across a brilliant analogy to the American tax code. I don’t know if the commenter, one Jay of Manchester (NH), came up with it…but it’s really, really good.
Suppose that every day, ten men go out for beer and the bill for all ten comes to $100. If they paid their bill the way we pay our taxes, it would go something like this:
* The first four men (the poorest) would pay nothing.
* The fifth would pay $1.
* The sixth would pay $3.
* The seventh would pay $7.
* The eighth would pay $12.
* The ninth would pay $18.
* The tenth man (the richest) would pay $59.So, that’s what they decided to do.
The ten men drank in the bar every day and seemed quite happy with the arrangement, until one day, the owner threw them a curve. “Since you are all such good customers,” he said, “I’m going to reduce the cost of your daily beer by $20.” Drinks for the ten now cost just $80 total.
The group still wanted to pay their bill the way we pay our taxes so the first four men were unaffected. They would still drink for free. But what about the other six men – the paying customers? How could they divide the $20 windfall so that everyone would get his ‘fair share?’ They realized that $20 divided by six is $3.33. But if they subtracted that from everybody’s share, then the fifth man and the sixth man would each end up being paid to drink his beer. So, the bar owner suggested that it would be fair to reduce each man’s bill by roughly the same amount, and he proceeded to work out the amounts each should pay.
And so:
* The fifth man, like the first four, now paid nothing (100% savings).
* The sixth now paid $2 instead of $3 (33%savings).
* The seventh now pay $5 instead of $7 (28%savings).
* The eighth now paid $9 instead of $12 ( 25% savings).
* The ninth now paid $14 instead of $18 ( 22% savings).
* The tenth now paid $49 instead of $59 (16% savings).Each of the six was better off than before. And the first four continued to drink for free. But once outside the restaurant, the men began to compare their savings.
“I only got a dollar out of the $20,” declared the sixth man. He pointed to the tenth man,”but he got $10!”
“Yeah, that’s right,” exclaimed the fifth man. “I only saved a dollar, too. It’s unfair that he got ten times more than I!“
“That’s true!!” shouted the seventh man. “Why should he get $10 back when I got only two? The wealthy get all the breaks!“
“Wait a minute,” yelled the first four men in unison. “We didn’t get anything at all. The system exploits the poor!“
The nine men surrounded the tenth and beat him up.
The next night the tenth man didn’t show up for drinks, so the nine sat down and had beers without him. But when it came time to pay the bill, they discovered something important. They didn’t have enough money between all of them for even half of the bill!
And that, boys and girls, journalists and college professors, is how our tax system works. The people who pay the highest taxes get the most benefit from a tax reduction. Tax them too much, attack them for being wealthy, and they just may not show up anymore. In fact, they might start drinking overseas where the atmosphere is somewhat friendlier.
Steve Forbes has pushed the flat tax for well over a decade, and former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee, talk show host Neil Boortz and Republican Georgia Congressman John Linder have pushed the Fair Tax for many years. Gregg’s idea is better than what we currently have- it gets rid of many special interest tax breaks, among other things- but it is not nearly as good as either the flat or Fair taxes. Increasingly progressive tax systems are always bad.
Personally, while the Fair Tax would be the best way to institute a tax- it gives you a choice of how much you want to be taxed, among other benefits, being a sales tax- I think the flat tax is the most politically palatable. The flat tax pleases Democrats, because of its innately progressive nature, but it does not become increasingly progressive, which should please Republicans. Furthermore, like the Fair Tax, it gets rid of the class warfare that permeates our current tax structure. The same rates are applied to all taxpayers, and any changes would thus affect all taxpayers.
Interview With Rep. Rob Bishop (R-UT)
I was able to interview Rep. Rob Bishop (R-UT) today for about ten minutes, thanks to Ericka Andersen of the House Republican Conference. Below is our exchange (paraphrased and based upon notes I took during the interview):
DS: Debt is out biggest issue. My father believes that we will never get out of the debt hole Presidents Bush and Obama are putting us in. How would you work to get this country out of this debt and deficit load?
RB: I don’t mean to over-simplify the solution, but federalism should be applied. We need to redefine what the role of the federal government is. We have good programs, but who runs them? The federal government. It’s too big to run so many programs well.
We should have the states run many programs, and give them the tax revenue that would otherwise be given to the federal government.
Creativity, efficiency and justice can only be done at the state and local levels- the federal government is just too big. We need to get the federal government out of peripheral areas. Foreign policy and national defense should be handled at the federal level, though.
DS: What would be your strategy to federalize these programs?
RB: Empower states to fight Congress. Back in 1988, Bruce Babbitt proposed empowering the states to oppose Congressional acts. The basic proposal was that if 2/3 of the states opposed a Congressional act, it sunsets in a year. National defense and foreign policy would be exempt.
DS: The Pentagon budget is as full of waste, fraud and abuse as any program, including Medicare. I know it’s hard for a Republican to commit to streamlining the Pentagon budget, but would you do so?
RB: No. I would not. That’s partially because the Pentagon has already started a lean program in Depot Force, and is asking people on the front line of building what our military needs how we can make things cheaper, with less of a footprint and with fewer people.
New Hampshire Democrat Is Sexist?
Why isn’t this major news? A female Democrat insults all male Members of Congress and a giant yawn ensues by the American media (raucous applause broke out in the actual speech, which can be seen at the link above).
Beyond the general stupidity of what Rep. Carol Shea-Porter (D-NH) said about men, it is a bad strategy in what will be a tough, possibly unwinnable, election. Added to how she acted last year towards her constituents, this strikes me as an unwise strategy in a re-election year she will probably lose.
Fortunately, some blogs and news sources are on the ball, and so Shea-Porter won’t completely get away with it. Here’s hoping she keeps sticking her foot in, so the Republicans can take her seat come November.
The Party of ?No, But Here?s A Better Idea?
Since the election of President Obama, the Democrats have been very effective at portraying the Republican Party as the ?Party of No.? Depending on your political persuasion, this could be completely true, completely false or somewhere in the middle.
In the last couple of weeks, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) has been hammered by Erick Erickson of RedState and Michelle Malkin for not fighting to the very finish on the recent Senate passage of a health care reform bill. On the one hand, these criticisms are of delaying tactics would only have slowed the vote by twelve hours, which would have done nothing in the halls of Congress but would have, as Ed Morrissey points out, given the media less time to cover the vote?s aftermath. On the other hand, if the Republican leadership had held firm on the many opportunities they had to slow things down, for example by following Senator Judd Gregg?s (R-NH) advice, and Senator Tom Coburn?s (R-OK) wish to read every part of the Senate bill, among other tactics to slow the bill, senators would have had to go home for Christmas a) without a bill, and b) to face their constituents, the majority of whom dislike the Democratic versions of health care reform and whom are increasingly against them as time goes on.
Senators Gregg, Coburn and Jim DeMint (R-SC), among many others, have been vilified for their articulate and unyielding opposition to health care reform and other Democratic measures. However, they are also the poster children for what Republicans should be about- namely, being the party of ?No, But Here?s A Better Idea.? All of these senators, along with other Republicans, have jammed the Democrats but also offered their own solutions to the various issues facing America. They have also worked with Democrats in a bipartisan fashion on a case-by-case basis.
When it comes to dispelling the myth that Republicans have been, and are being, merely obstructionists, let’s start with Senator Judd Gregg. On the one hand, Gregg voted for Secretary Geithner?s nomination, nearly accepted a position as President Obama?s Commerce Secretary, offered support for the bipartisan Wyden-Bennett bill and has worked with Democrat Kent Conrad (D-ND) on a debt commission. On the other, Gregg has hammered Obama on debt, passed around a virtual handbook for Republican obstructionism and taken the lead on opposing Democratic reconciliation. Additionally, however, Gregg has offered his own bill as an alternative to the Democratic proposals.
Senator DeMint is probably most famous for his Waterloo statement and his numerous delaying tactics on health care reform (see here and here for examples). However, he has also worked with self-declared socialist Independent Bernie Sanders (I-VT) on halting the Bernanke nomination and bringing transparency to the Federal Reserve. As a representative of the Party of ?No, but here?s a better idea,? he too has put forth a health care alternative to the Democratic proposals.
Lastly, we have Senator Coburn. Coburn has slid in two gun amendments this year to two Democrat-supported bills, halting the DC voting bill in its tracks. He has also held up funding for veterans because he wanted to use unused stimulus funds for the benefits and loudly opposed the stimulus package. He also forced a reading of Senator Sanders? single-payer amendment to the Democratic bill. However, at the same time, he has maintained a friendship with President Obama, pushed a transparency bill with then-Senator Obama (D-IL) into law in 2006 and sponsored a Republican alternative to the Democratic health care bills on, of all places, Huffington Post. In fact, he wrote on Huffington Post not once but twice. This is a guy who clearly wants his message to get out to all Americans, not just his constituents or fellow conservatives.
Other ?No but here?s a better idea? Republicans include Representative Paul Ryan (R-WI), the numerous Republican co-sponsors of the Wyden-Bennett bill and Senator Lindsey Graham (R-SC).
The fact is that Republicans are trying to stop a very bad makeover of a massive portion of America in ways that swing from bad policy to unethical to unconstitutional. For an example of the latter, with respect to David Frum?s recent piece supporting the individual mandate?s constitutionality, he is wrong- an individual mandate is clearly unconstitutional. Other bad components include the Senate bill’s abortion funding, the House bill’s public option and the lack of legitimate tort reform in either bill.
Personally, I think Republicans should have fought tooth-and-nail for a post-Christmas vote on the Democratic health care reform bill in the Senate. They should have offered amendments, yes, as Frum has said- but they have a responsibility to stop the bill first and foremost. That is what the minority is supposed to do with a bill as bad as this one, with as little power as Republicans and conservatives have right now- stop the legislation cold and start over with a bill that includes conservative and free market principles and ideas. Some Republicans are just being the Party of No, but sometimes saying?saying?’no’ is necessary, despite what some Democrats may say.
Prayers And Support For Sad Occurrences Over Christmas
The first is a Salvation Army Major who was accosted and shot in front of his three very young children on Christmas Eve. See the linked article for where to send donations.
Secondly, a father who was sent to Iraq- he was only a few days from his actual deployment, training at a base stateside- was unable to be with his family over Christmas despite his house burning down last week. I heard about it on a local radio station based in Littleton, New Hampshire, where the man’s family lives. The father was able to come home for one day and then had to go back to his unit. The family lost everything, though none of the three young children- all five years old or younger- were injured, nor was the childrens’ mother.? Donations may be made by calling the Littleton Police Department at (603) 444-2422 and asking to speak to the dispatcher.
Iranian officials are still cracking down on those brave enough to protest. Contact your Members of Congress- Senate and House- and the White House to urge our leaders to support the protesters before it’s too late.
A bridge has collapsed in India, and dozens are feared dead. I don’t know how to offer support here, other than prayer.
Of course, there are always the military service members overseas, their families, those the soldiers are fighting and their families- prayers and support for all sides so there may be peace and justice I’m sure would help.
I know these kinds of incidents and occurrences are not happy things to think about during the Christmas season- especially when we all have our own troubles in this recession. However, as those fortunate enough to be able to celebrate Christmas in relative peace and happiness, I hope we can remember to go out of our way to help those we run into and those we don’t while the spirit of the season is still upon us, and we get too caught up in the necessities of our normal daily lives once Christmas and New Year’s vacations are over.
Mocking Government Incompetence in New Hampshire
This is brilliant. I know Grant Bosse fairly well, and met him when he ran for the Republican nomination for the second Congressional district in New Hampshire. Apparently Bosse decided to run for a political nomination in the OO district of NH, which doesn’t exist but is mentioned on Recovery.gov as having received stimulus money. Bosse’s mockery is of no surprise to me, and I only wish I had thought of it first.
Race Card Pulled (Surprise)
The AFL-CIO has attacked a Chamber of Commerce ad as “…the same old right wing dog whistle politics.” The ad, which can be seen at The Huffington Post link above, shows a white man being called into his boss’ office to be fired. On the way to the office he claps a worker on the shoulder, and the worker looks at him as he walks into the office. The fellow employee is black.
Personally, I don’t see this ad as racist. I?do see it potentially doing two things: first, it’s covering some of the?necessary ground to appeal to a wide variety of workers in America. After all, nobody is safe?from being fired. Secondly, it is trying to be politically correct in its portrayal of the “everyman” worker, by showing a black person on the same job as a white person. It very well could be argued that the ad was trying to be racially sensitive, by not excluding a black person from the ad. According to Huffington Post, however, “an official with the AFL-CIO, who saw the ad air on Wednesday morning, argued that it was a perpetuation of the stereotype that minorities have a leg up on their colleagues because of affirmative-action policies.”
I definitely think the AFL-CIO is stretching here; however, I’m open to interpretations on this ad. Being a young white guy from New Hampshire, I don’t see much as racist or race-baiting on either side, though as a conservative I tend to see it more from the left. Earlier this year, however, I didn’t interpret the New York Post cartoon?as racist, but a black friend told me it “brought us back” 100 or more years. (To clarify this friend is no Al Sharpton when it comes to race issues.) I will readily admit to?missing racially-sensitive goings-on in America, so I welcome comments and corrections on my interpretation of this ad.
New Hampshire Looks Strong For Republicans
This was originally published at http://race42008.com/
New Hampshire, which has been bragged about by Democrats for its 2004-2008 elections of Democrat, has a very good chance of switching to red in 2010 in all three of its very wide open races.
The First District’s Representative is in enough trouble that on October 20 Politico highlighted difficulties Representative Carol Shea-Porter (D-NH) is having back home with her reputation. As a New Hampshire native I remember her initial campaign in 2006, which was a truly impressive grassroots effort first against a favored primary opponent and then a general election victory over incumbent Jeb Bradley. Of particular import to her campaign was her very liberal anti-war stance and her radical behavior towards Bradley. Politico focused on concerns that she had “gone native,” something that New Hampshireites despise in our elected officials. This was highlighted during the 2009 August recess, where it took several weeks of bi-partisan pressure for Shea-Porter to finally hold an open town hall meeting- and where she kicked out a retired policeman from one of the town halls. The video of the expulsion can be seen here. She is also expected to face a tough Republican in Manchester Mayor Frank Guinta.
The Second District’s Representative, Democrat Paul Hodes, is going for retiring Republican Senator Judd Gregg’s seat. He is a two-time elected representative, but suffers from a lack of statewide recognition, being behind in the very preliminary polls and a slight lack of fundraising this quarter compared to his only announced opponent, former Attorney General Kelly Ayotte.
Lastly, the Second District is wide open. 2008 Republican nominee Jennifer Horn has declared her candidacy, and there are many Republicans and Democrats showing interest daily or already in the race (of particular interest are rumors that former Second District Representative Charles Bass, a Republican who lost to Hodes in 2006, may run for the seat). This is a wide open race on both sides, though Democrat Ann McLane Kuster did raise a fair amount of money in the second quarter of this year.
Of course, all Republican candidates are likely to pick up the nomination of the conservative Union Leader, the state’s largest newspaper.
This early in the races, there are many weaknesses on the Republican side of things. These include Horn’s lack of grasp on the issues, something I saw firsthand in a Republican candidate forum I sponsored at Plymouth State University last year. Also, according to numerous sources in New Hampshire (I’ve always wanted to say that), Ayotte’s unpopular choice of bringing in an out-of-state campaign manager and her inability to take strong stances on several issues thus far are hurting her. Thirdly, of course, the simple fact that there are so many Republicans running or expected to run that we could very well end up with a bad candidate in the general election.
Whatever happens over the next eleven months before the primary elections, and no matter who the general election candidates are in these races for Republicans, party activists should keep New Hampshire in their minds as they choose states and campaigns to donate their time, money and other resources. This will be a truly wide-open election, and one that could begin a Republican resurgence in the Northeast.
