New Hampshire, which has been bragged about by Democrats for its 2004-2008 elections of Democrat, has a very good chance of switching to red in 2010 in all three of its very wide open races.

The First District’s Representative is in enough trouble that on October 20 Politico highlighted difficulties Representative Carol Shea-Porter (D-NH) is having back home with her reputation. As a New Hampshire native I remember her initial campaign in 2006, which was a truly impressive grassroots effort first against a favored primary opponent and then a general election victory over incumbent Jeb Bradley. Of particular import to her campaign was her very liberal anti-war stance and her radical behavior towards Bradley. Politico focused on concerns that she had “gone native,” something that New Hampshireites despise in our elected officials. This was highlighted during the 2009 August recess, where it took several weeks of bi-partisan pressure for Shea-Porter to finally hold an open town hall meeting- and where she kicked out a retired policeman from one of the town halls. The video of the expulsion can be seen here. She is also expected to face a tough Republican in Manchester Mayor Frank Guinta.

The Second District’s Representative, Democrat Paul Hodes, is going for retiring Republican Senator Judd Gregg’s seat. He is a two-time elected representative, but suffers from a lack of statewide recognition, being behind in the very preliminary polls and a slight lack of fundraising this quarter compared to his only announced opponent, former Attorney General Kelly Ayotte.

Lastly, the Second District is wide open. 2008 Republican nominee Jennifer Horn has declared her candidacy, and there are many Republicans and Democrats showing interest daily or already in the race (of particular interest are rumors that former Second District Representative Charles Bass, a Republican who lost to Hodes in 2006, may run for the seat). This is a wide open race on both sides, though Democrat Ann McLane Kuster did raise a fair amount of money in the second quarter of this year.

Of course, all Republican candidates are likely to pick up the nomination of the conservative Union Leader, the state’s largest newspaper.

This early in the races, there are many weaknesses on the Republican side of things. These include Horn’s lack of grasp on the issues, something I saw firsthand in a Republican candidate forum I sponsored at Plymouth State University last year. Also, according to numerous sources in New Hampshire (I’ve always wanted to say that), Ayotte’s unpopular choice of bringing in an out-of-state campaign manager and her inability to take strong stances on several issues thus far are hurting her. Thirdly, of course, the simple fact that there are so many Republicans running or expected to run that we could very well end up with a bad candidate in the general election.

Whatever happens over the next eleven months before the primary elections, and no matter who the general election candidates are in these races for Republicans, party activists should keep New Hampshire in their minds as they choose states and campaigns to donate their time, money and other resources. This will be a truly wide-open election, and one that could begin a Republican resurgence in the Northeast.