Media Matters vs. Fox News
Yesterday, a friend on Facebook linked to a Media Matters for America critique of a Fox News chart supposing to show “Job Loss By Quarter.” Normally I brush off Media Matters, because while they often have very solid analysis, I also feel they often do more attacking AGAINST conservative media than analysis of, or “fighting back against,” conservative media.
However, the analysis by MM’s Jocelyn Fong interested me, particularly since she hit the chart from multiple angles and even gave Fox the benefit of the doubt a couple of times. This latter part is not something I often see when I go to MM. Below is the chart, with some of Fong’s analysis:



The chart claims to show “Job loss by quarter.” But it doesn’t. (We lost 15 million jobs in the second quarter of 2010!?? Surely, that would have been catastrophic news.) What this defective chart actually displays is the number of unemployed during four random quarters over the past two-and-a-half years.
And later:
Notice on Fox’s chart that the first interval on the horizontal axis, from December ’07 to September ’08 represents 9 months. The second interval, between September ’08 and March ’09, represents 6 months. And the third interval, from March ’09 to June ’10, represents 15 months, almost all of Obama’s term so far. So the third interval should be two-and-a-half times as long as the second. But in Fox’s chart, it’s shorter!
The effect of this is to flatten out the steep rise in the number of unemployed between September ’08 and March ’09 (before Obama’s policies started taking effect) and to suggest that the increases in unemployment later during Obama’s term were more dramatic than they actually were. To get the line straight, Fox also manipulated the scale of the vertical axis.
I decided to do some background checking. I called the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and was led to their June 04, 2010 report of May’s unemployment numbers, which said 15.0 million people were unemployed during May. (The BLS employee I spoke to said the 15 million was slightly rounded up from the actual numbers.) So far, it looks like Fox was not actively misleading with information on the chart- merely, as Fong noted initially, misnaming the chart and skewing its intervals. Bad, but not dishonest.
However, I was still unsatisfied, and called Chris Harris at MM, who followed up with Fong on my behalf (their research people don’t take calls directly, according to the operator). My question is in bold, with her answer following:
Is it accurate to say these are the number of jobs lost at these points during the recession?
Not quite. The number of unemployed and “jobs lost” are not the same thing. When the recession started in December 2007, there were around 7.7 million people unemployed, according to the BLS Current Population Survey data. If you go back a couple of years, to December 2004, long before the recession began, there were 7.9 million people unemployed. Since there are always several million people unemployed at any given point, it’s misleading to say that 15 million have “lost jobs” as of May 2010. It’s even more misleading to omit any information from the period between March ’09 and June ’10, during which the unemployment level trend shifted significantly from increasingly steeply to essentially leveling out. The number of unemployed is now 639,000 lower than when it peaked in October 2009. You have to wonder why Fox chose those four specific points to include in the chart. And it’s also misleading for Fox to manipulate the scale of their chart in a way that understates the unemployment increases in late 2008 and early 2009 and exaggerates unemployment increases during the remainder of Obama’s term.
In retrospect, I realize my question was not phrased well. Not only did I forget that there is always unemployment, even in good times, but I also should have asked- as Fong noted- about the number of unemployed as opposed to jobs lost. However, I think Fong’s response shows that while Fox did skew the scale and misname the chart, there was no intent to mislead on what the actual information.
In the end, I think Fong was a bit overzealous in her analysis, because she obviously has talent, but also clearly was going out of her way to hammer Fox. She notes the following in her closing:
And again, when you use Fox’s data points like this, with no information about the period between March ’09 and June ’10, you miss the fact that the number of unemployed has essentially stopped rising since the Fall of 2009.
While this is entirely accurate, it also obscures that a lot of the hiring has been census workers, and that Fox wasn’t attempting, by Fong’s own statements, to show when and where employment stopped falling. Whether or not they should have is a debate for a different day- Fox was merely showing the unemployment rate at semi-random quarters (two of the quarters were the start of the recession and the current month, hence why they were semi-random data points) throughout the recession, as Fong herself noted. Again:
What this defective chart actually displays is the number of unemployed during four random quarters over the past two-and-a-half years.
It is overstepping of the analysis like this that causes me to sometimes brush off Media Matters. They do a lot of good work, but why spend so much time and effort on tearing apart a single Fox chart, when discrediting this particular chart could have been done with the above quote and a couple of their own charts? This is why they appear to some to be as much a tool of the Democratic Party as they likely believe Fox News to be of the Republican Party.
Update: Media Matters has an update noting Fox has changed the name of the chart to reflect more accurately upon the numbers.
Interview With Rep. Michele Bachmann
(You can grab the audio of the interview here via “Right-click… Save as…”. Or hover your mouse over the speaker icon to listen to the interview as streaming audio. -nick)
Representative Michele Bachmann (R-MN) was kind enough to give thelobbyist.net a few minutes of her time last week to ta
lk about the national debt and how if Congress trusts the American people, the so-called Debt-Paying Generation (those young Americans whose futures will be crushed by the tsunami of debt the nation faces) will be able to live the American Dream and not be forced to live a life of less quality than their parents.
Representative Bachmann is the Republican representative of the 6th District of Minnesota. She has represented her constituents since 2007, and has been a conservative leader in everything from government transparency to health care reform to reversing course on the size and scope of the federal government.
Dustin Siggins: So you and I met, briefly, Representative, when you were on the Laura Ingraham Show back in March…
Michele Bachmann: Mm-hm, isn’t she great?
DS: Oh she’s awesome; she’s a riot.
MB: She is such a talent.
DS: I really liked when she was on Bill O’Reilly a couple of weeks ago, and they were talking about blaming Napolitano- I don’t know if you saw it?
MB: I didn’t.
DS: They were debating and Bill O’Reilly decided that he wasn’t going to blame Napolitano for the BP response for the oil spill. And he was trying to play the middle road, and so Ingraham just went crazy on him and then picked up his cup of water from behind where he was sitting and went, “He is drinking the Kool-Aid!”
MB: Oh! (laughter) She is so creative. Well you know the great thing is, he has a tremendous audience, and a lot of interests, and he tries very hard, I think…I think he is really trying to be fair and balanced and trying to get both sides or both perspectives. And obviously he has been very successful for a long period of time. But people really do love Laura and I think that her stock is only going to continue to soar.
DS: Oh I have to agree with you. There’s no way, and especially with what’s going on here in DC, there’s no way any conservative’s stock is going to tumble in the next two to four years.
MB: Yeah.
DS: Um, so I was talking to Dave, whom I met a couple of weeks ago, and I am currently at the Heritage Foundation working on the Debt Paying Generation project…
MB: Oh good so you’re working with Bill Beach!
DS: Exactly. According to Mr. Beach you are a ‘huge fan.’
MB: I am a huge fan! This is the issue, I told Bill, that I really want to hit on because I think that young people’s ears are starting to perk up on their future, what their future is going to be like. And I think that it’s a tremendous shock for a lot of young people to find out that their standard of living could be demonstrably lowered beyond what their parents had. And even though people may hear that in the abstract, especially for younger people, it’s hard to believe that it could be true or that it could be translated into a diminishing reality going forward, and I think it’s important for us to make that case and I think it will be easier, then, for us to talk about positive solutions to be able to dig our way out so that we can have a way forward. Because, there is, it isn’t something where we have to give up and realize that we have to consign ourselves, especially the young debt-paying generation, to a future of less. We can have a better future, but what it means is people in my generation are going to have to make alterations as well. We can’t let the government try to be the answer to every problem.
DS: Your generation, 31,32?
MB: That’s right. (laughter) No actually I love getting older, to be honest with you. I’m 54 years old and I told my husband that I love getting older so it doesn’t bother me at all.
DS: Interesting. Well I’m 24 and look 20, or 19 and 18; so I wouldn’t mind looking a little older, but-
MB: Ahh, well I’m sure, well your…It’ll come sooner than what you think.
DS: Well hopefully- I think the grey hair would help make me look distinguished.
MB: Yes, undoubtedly. Get a pair of glasses- that will help.
DS: I’ve had glasses since I was one and a half and it hasn’t helped (laughter) Well anyway, a little side-tracked. Regarding the debt paying of this generation, I mean obviously the democrats aren’t going to pass a budget in the house. Rep. Hoyer just stated that yesterday, correct?”
MB: That’s right.
DS: Why are they not passing a budget? Are they scared that American will look and say “oh wow, they made it worse than the Republicans did?”
MB: Well, it’s a dereliction of duty and it’s also an admission that they can’t govern. They had made the comment about Republicans passing budgets and I think now what is good for the goose is good for the gander. I think they’re going to have to live by their own statements. If they make an admission that they can’t pass a budget when they own the white house, when they own the senate, and when they own the house, they are making an admission that they cant govern. And frankly, they are digging a hole for themselves…that they hole that they dug for themselves is embarrassing. The debt and the taxing…the taxes that result from this out of control debt will be one that will mean fewer jobs will be created in the private sector. You have to have a growth economy to create jobs and we saw that there were some 40,000 jobs that were created last month, that is not going to get us anywhere. Especially for the debt paying generation, there is certainly more than 41,000 people who graduated from college last year. Those recent college graduates and those individuals that have left high school and chose not to go onto college, they are looking for employment; and unfortunately, under President Obama’s policies and Speaker Pelosi’s policies…their policies are not inducing entrepreneurs to grow and create jobs. Without private job creation, there can be no healthy public sector either. And so, they are making some very foolish decisions that have long term consequences and they bode ill for the debt paying generation.”
DS: The Center for American Progress did a study- well I guess they called it an analysis, I wouldn’t call it an analysis myself- but they cited several polls showing that the most popular thing for America is to cut the budget of Foreign Aid which is two percent of the budget that President Obama proposed and yet older Americans seem to like Social Security and seem to like Medicare, how do we convince people in my age bracket that we have to get rid of these programs, or at least reform them severely, as President Bush tried to do in 2005. How do we convince people this is best- that they’re going to have to suffer a little bit for the long-term benefit of the country?
MB: Well, I think the best way we can do that is to make the case to people that these programs are going to collapse of their own accord- no one will benefit from that. We don’t want to see senior citizens put in a situation where they’re dependent on either Medicare or Social Security, and one day when they go to their mailbox, they open it up, and there’s no check there because these programs have collapsed because we’re actually bankrupt. That’s why we need to do the responsible thing and make these programs work for the people they were intended to benefit. And we can do that- we could do that sitting down with a magnifying glass and a pencil, and we could make adjustments so that we can actually save these programs for the people who really, truly need them and who truly depend on them, and then for the Debt-Paying Generation we want to make sure going forward that we have alternatives for them so that they can have a secure retirement and deal with health care in a more rational level.
Government takeover of health care has been the Obama way and the Obama solution, and it isn’t that I think President Obama is an evil, negative person- I think he just simply, simply has it wrong. I think he’s simply wrong about the government takeover of health care, and a person can’t point to one jurisdiction or area where the government takeover of health care has actually improved healthcare for people, or made it more inexpensive, because adding the price of bureaucracy to a product doesn’t make a product cheaper, it makes it more expensive and more difficult to obtain- and I think Americans intuitively know that will be our future going forward.
This is why I think, when it comes to health care, which is a new entitlement program, that’s why I think we have a real, and realistic, chance, of actually repealing the bill, and I was the first Member of Congress to issue a full-scale repeal of the bill, and ObamaCare, and it is very popular, as a measure, and we’re looking at about 2/3 of the American people hoping Congress will have a repeal. If you have 2/3 of the American people, wanting to repeal the president’s signature achievement over the last 18 months-perhaps the signature achievement of whatever length of time is his presidency- I think that we will be able to make the case on a number of areas of government overreach.
DS: Well, I guess my last question- and you talked about what the Democrats have done badly, and I agree with you- but I came of age during the Bush years, and Republicans obviously didn’t do so well between 2001 and 2006 with the Medicare Part D, and they jumped the cost of government, the size of government, up. How do you convince the American people that Republicans are trustworthy? Not you individually, of course [DS: Rep. Bachmann was first elected in 2006, and served her first term starting in 2007], but how, I mean, the Republican Party as a whole. This year, yes, it’s anti-incumbent, but I don’t think, personally, that it’s so much pro-Republican.
MB: Oh, I think you’re accurate about that. I think people are reacting negatively to what they have observed from the Pelosi/Reid/Obama agenda. People intuitively understand that they can’t live with excessive spending that creates unsustainable levels of debt- if they can’t live like that in their own personal lives or in their businesses, they certainly know that government doesn’t have a magic formula that defies economic reality. So people are rejecting the Obama agenda. People want to know, “Republicans, if we give you the gavel, can we trust you? Will you be responsible? Do you have a plan to get us out of this hole?” And that’s up to Republicans, now, to make that message. I think one of the best things we could do, is let the American people know- number one- if you put us in office, we will vote to full-scale repeal ObamaCare. Root and branch, we will pull it out, and we will repeal that measure. I think that’s something that is a very saleable proposition. I also think it’s saleable to tell the American people that we will pass a budget- a balanced budget- and I think that’s what people want us to do, is to pass a balanced budget, and then to show the American people, first of all, that the tremendous straits that we’re in, financially, going forward, once people know the difficulties and the reality of the problem that we’re in right now, I think they’ll be more amenable to the solutions that we can propose to put our financial house on a- in the right order.
DS: I hope so, because I’d like to see this country be as good for me as it was for my parents, so-
MB: Exactly. I will tell you, anywhere I go to speak, I ask that question. “Do you believe you live better than your parents?” Almost everyone in the audience puts their hand up. I ask them, “do you think your children will live better than you financially?” Virtually no one puts their hands up. I doubt in the last 234 years, if you ask that question of any generation, that they would think that their children would not be better off than they are; I just don’t think that you would have gotten that response. That’s really what is frightening today, because we’ve always been a country that’s been about forward- looking people, and growth. And this is one of the first times when Americans look into the future, and they see diminished way of life, and they see decline.
The beauty of America, is that we get to choose. We get to choose decline, or we get to choose if we want growth. I think that if you put the question to a referendum to the American people, they will choose growth. And if that means pinching back on a social safety-net, I think that we’ll have buy-in from people, because, ultimately people do want better for their children and for the next generation. Even if people are childless, they want the next generation to be able to do well. In fact, I think it’s simply the matter of having to make the case, you know just like you’ll see on Glenn Beck with his chalkboard, he makes a compelling case if he’s describing an issue. And I think that’s something that Republicans will have to do, so to speak, have our own kind of a chalkboard where we make the case to the American people of two futures for America: one where we go down the road of the Pelosi-Reid Agenda that they have taken us down, which the American people are thoroughly rejecting, but take it beyond the year 2010…play it out to 2020, and play it out to what America will look like when we are in the same economic bind that Greece is in today. Economists like Larry Lindsey tell us that we are looking within a ten-year window of having that type of economic decline. That truly is not a road that people would choose to go down, and that’s what gives me great hope and great excitement because even people who are senior citizens, they don’t want to bequeath a future grounded in decline. I know that sounds like an oxymoron; but senior citizens don’t want to see that for their own children and grand-children. And that’s what gives me hope going forward- because we really are a nation of very bright people, who make good choices. We could trust the American peoples’ choice, we just need to give them the truth and put all facts on the table, and then I have every hope and every reason to believe that people will make choices for their own gain and their own benefit because no one wants to succeed… I mean, no one wants to fail, everyone wants to succeed.
DS: Well, Representative Bachmann, I think I’ve run out of time. I really appreciate what you’ve said and hopefully we’ll see you doing a lot of that, especially if Republicans take back the House.
MB: Well, and we’ll do this again soon, I’d love to do this again!
DS: Alright, thank you very much. Take care!
MB: Alright, bye bye.
[Note: I would like to thank RJ; Will; and Nick for helping transcribe the interview. This would not have gotten posted without their help. DS]
Clint Webb for Senate
Brilliant. Just brilliant.
Leave Afghanistan
I know RJ will vehemently disagree with me, but here is an op-ed I wrote about leaving Afghanistan that Daily Caller was kind enough to publish:
On Monday, a former professor and I were chatting, and the war in Afghanistan came up. I have been supporting a 100% pull-out from that country- as well as Iraq- for some time now, and think that with the General McChrystal issue hitting the fan (for the record, I support the president’s acceptance of the general’s resignation), it’s as good a time as any to post about why we need to leave the country.
First, we should leave for humanitarian/ethical reasons. We are sending servicemembers to that country to die for an Afghan leader who is corrupt, and whose brother is a criminal. What is our goal over there? The Afghanistan people are, at best, a tribal people with no real central government and no willingness to even have a central government. Being there to have access to Pakistan is just not a good enough reason anymore. Secondly, to (admittedly, hesitantly) quote a front page poster at Daily Kos, the worse Afghanistan gets, the less likely we are to leave. Since when does a proper cost-benefit analysis include sending good money after bad, and since when does honoring those who have valiantly served, been injured and/or died in Afghanistan include sending more young people to die without cause?
Secondly, we should leave because the American people don’t support this war. Oh, they say they do. But as New York Times columnist Bob Herbert described in December of last year, our support is minimal. Some money or other means of assistance is sent by those affected directly or indirectly by the war (friends and family with military members overseas, etc.) and some truly patriotic Americans, but most of the nation is satisfied with rhetoric pulled from blogs, talking heads and Associated Press articles. (Oh, yeah, and they have yellow ribbons on their bumpers.) As Herbert put it,
The reason it is so easy for the U.S. to declare wars, and to continue fighting year after year after year, is because so few Americans feel the actual pain of those wars. We’ve been fighting in Iraq and Afghanistan longer than we fought in World Wars I and II combined. If voters had to choose right now between instituting a draft or exiting Afghanistan and Iraq, the troops would be out of those two countries in a heartbeat.
Thirdly, we should leave Afghanistan because, despite the very good reasons for entering in 2001, Bush and Congress ignored Afghanistan for half a decade while focusing on Iraq. Whether or not we should have focused on Iraq is a different debate for a different time…but they failed to conduct the war in Afghanistan with efficiency, and President Obama is not improving things. Instead, as George Will pointed out this week, we have created a military for babysitting. Even with President Obama sending 30,000 troops over to the nation, we have a timetable. Since when has letting the foe know when it’s safe to come out become American policy? Obama’s mistakes are somewhat different than Bush’s…but they have the same consequences for our young people dying over there. Again, the cost-benefit analysis is not in favor of staying in Afghanistan.
Fourth, we just don’t have a clue as to what we’re doing, as pointed out by The Washington Examiner. Period. Is Karzai a good guy for us? It depends on the day. Are we trying to kill terrorists, or win the minds of the people? Um…the answer is unclear- ask again later. Is our enemy in Pakistan, Somalia, Yemen or Afghanistan? I don’t think anyone really knows, despite what they may say. It could be all four. Are we going to invade Pakistan, Somalia and Yemen next, as a result?
After our conversation, my professor sent me an e-mail with the following title: “Until: 1) We decide to WIN wars again & 2) The Harvard kids also serve …this says it all.” He was referring to a recent Herbert column, in which Herbert talked about the courage to leave Afghanistan. The fact is that if we want to win wars, we should have a beginning, a middle and an end planned out. We should bring in enough troops. We should know the culture. We should not be convinced by elitists to enter a conflict- elitists whose their total involvement in war consists of debating on TV or making a profit off of the deaths of our countrymen. Pay the taxes to support the war, or do a USO tour, or encourage your child to join the military. Something. (On that note, great credit goes to people like Senator McCain and Vice-President Biden, whose children have served in post-9/11 conflicts, and especially to Senator McCain, who supports the war despite the risk to his family.)
I wasn’t alive in 1972, but my professor, my father and an increasing number of right-of-center individuals are saying the same thing- they’ve seen Afghanistan before. Of course- and it is now clichéd- it was called Vietnam, then. Since Bush took office, our debt has risen nearly 125%, with over 10% of that cost directly attributable to entering Iraq and Afghanistan. We’ve lost thousands of young men and women. As much as it pains me to say it, the honorable thing to do is tactically retreat, starting tomorrow, and conduct a full pull-out from Afghanistan and Iraq, and honor our fallen by swearing to never, ever forget our first duty to the troops is to use them to protect our nation, not appease the egos and wallets that have benefited over the last nine years from our involvement in the Middle East.
My friend Tom Qualtere, who works for The Heritage Foundation, wrote an op-ed for Daily Caller back in March, and in it he said that Millennial/Generation Y Americans “are the 9/11 generation.” I agree with him, if only because the specter of 9/11 has dominated this nation’s, and our young people’s, thinking and culture since the towers fell. According to Tom, however, our duty is as follows:
But for those of us who’ve chosen a vocation on the home front, our support for them and their mission must be unambiguous and unwavering. It is time for conservatism’s 9/11 generation to fully embrace and defend the role that history has bestowed upon us and wear our hawk feathers more proudly than ever.
Tom and I disagree on many policy issues, and Afghanistan is one of them. He will undoubtedly respond to this opinion by saying we are letting the terrorists win by leaving Afghanistan. This would be the case if we just left Afghanistan (and Iraq) and forgot about the Middle East. However, when we leave, we must do so with the following assertions to the rest of the world (and our own citizenry):
- We are going to get the government out of the way and drill for oil within our national borders, build wind farms and build nuclear power plants. No longer will we send tens of billions every year to nations that support terrorism and hate us. While I do believe we went into Afghanistan and Iraq for good and ethical reasons, the fact is that part of that reasoning was for the benefits of oil for America. Well, take away the need for overseas oil, and we can start minding our own business for a change. Moreover, many terrorist organizations will have less money with which to fund attacks against us. This will take years, of course- but better late than never, and the sooner we start the better off we will be.
- The international community has for too long relied on our military. We have over 700 bases worldwide, and given our budget issues, this is unsustainable. If other nations- the same ones who criticize and condemn us if we don’t get involved (see Rwanda), but also if we do (see Iraq), with world affairs- want to utilize our blood and treasure, they can sign treaties and trade deals that give America a slice of the economic pie we have not asked for during our six-plus decades of world protection. Protection of other nations should be handled on a case-by-case basis, not with the assumption we will help every nation without such agreements. Supporting Kuwait in 1991, for example, was done because a) it was in our national interest, and b) because we had the ability to strike and win without a prolonged, expensive endeavor. Essentially, the cost-benefit analysis was positive.
- Protect our borders with some of the troops we bring home, among other good immigration policies (allowing border guards to shoot; encouraging legal immigration through incentives, etc.). Terrorists will have a hard time hurting us without being able to get in. Good, effective border policy will also give us the time to better our energy policies, as mentioned above.
- The jihadists will probably claim victory; after all, they drove out the “Great Satan,” much as they did with the Russians in the 1980s. This is a major concern, as 9/11 was the culmination of a nearly a decade’s worth of minor attacks that went unanswered by President Clinton. However, that’s where minding our own business and providing them with less money come into play, as well as the treaties I mentioned above. By minding our own business, we will blunt some of the jihadist propaganda. Secondly, without money they will have less success in attacking us in our own nation. Thirdly, should our intelligence see a threat, they can work with intelligence agencies in other nations and sign treaties and work together to deal with threats both before and as they arise. Lastly, should all else fail, we will have our own border control forces.
A clarification: I do not support an isolationist foreign policy platform, nor do I believe we have caused all of the world’s problems. The Middle East would have been a pit of peoples fighting among themselves even if America had never even sent a single dollar or troop there. However, other than supporting Israel and other allies with which we have treaties, or responding as we did after 9/11 to a direct threat on our nation, we should not be in that part of the world. The difficulty, of course- and this is why we have experts in government and the private sector- is striking the correct balance between leaving with our tail between our legs, thereby encouraging boldness by our enemies, and leaving with our heads held high without showing weakness. I think it is possible to do the latter by leaving now, though I admit the idea is balanced on a blade’s edge, and would require much delicate work.
It is difficult to say something is not worth vast amounts of effort- in this case, money and blood- put into it. It’s especially difficult when we have not won a major military conflict (except in 1991) since World War II. However, pride is only useful if those with the pride (i.e. politicians, think tank observers, etc.) are in the conflicts or are otherwise directly affected. Otherwise, the consequences of the pride are simply foisted onto those patriotic Americans who die or are maimed as a direct result of the pride. The delicate balance necessary to leave Afghanistan without handing a public relations boon to our terrorist enemies is an important step in owning up to the mistakes pride have bought us in the War on Terror.
*Originally published at DailyCaller.com.
The Facts About Social Security (Update- Transcript Added)
I was recently able to interview James Agresti, the founder of JustFacts.com, about the dark future facing Social Security.
The audio can be heard here. The transcript is forthcoming, and will be up ASAP.
Update: The transcript has been added below.
On May 26, 2010, Rep. Anthony Weiner (D-N.Y.) wrote an op-ed in Politico defending Social Security’s solvency, and refuting many concerns cited by critics. Intrigued, I contacted the Congressman’s press secretary by phone the following day to interview the Congressman about his assertions, and to contrast them with what I have heard and read from critics of Social Security. His press secretary and I exchanged several phone calls, and I sent two follow-up e-mails regarding an interview. After receiving no response, I moved forward.
I decided to interview James Agresti, the founder of the non-profit think tank Just Facts, about the very dark future Social Security faces. I intended to write a full article, as opposed to a simple transcript, but without the Congressman’s perspective and given the critical information James provided, I decided to stick with a simple transcript. The audio of the interview can be heard here.
(Full disclosure: I met James at a Leadership Institute seminar last April, and we have kept in touch since. I am a regular caller on his Tuesday evening radio show, Just Facts Radio.)
Dustin Siggins: Anthony Weiner, the Rep. from New York, wrote a piece supporting Social Security as a vital part of retirement for Americans. He said the program was in very little to no trouble, and was perfectly solvent. This was a couple of weeks ago, in a Friday’s [Correction: The op-ed was written on a Wednesday] Politico. I called the Congressman’s office twice, I traded e-mails with his Press Secretary- they did not get back to me. So, I’m writing the article, because I’m past my deadline.
Now, your website, JustFacts.com, you’ve done a lot of work on Social Security; on the National Debt; and how Social Security affects the National Debt. Is that correct?
James Agresti: That is correct.
DS: I just have a few questions, I guess based upon the assertions the Congressman made in his Politico column. The first is that he said Social Security will be solvent for many, many years. My question to you is, are seniors receiving at least an equal payback? They’re putting 6.2 percent, I believe, of their income, plus the 6.2 percent from their employer, into their retirement- essentially, through Social Security. Are they receiving an equal number, an equal amount, back?
JA: Well, that depends on what seniors you are talking about. Under the current system, some will get absolutely nothing back, while others will get back far more than they put in. The way the system is currently structured- let’s take an example of someone who dies right when they are ready to receive benefits, let’s just say 65 years old. They have no surviving heirs, no surviving children—I shouldn’t say heirs, I should say they have no surviving minor children. They may be adults, and may be self-sufficient, they’re not dependent on him- that person will have worked their entire life, paid into the system—and it is 6.2 percent, but that money from the employer ultimately comes from the employee’s paychecks. The Obama administration has been clear about that in other contexts, such as the health care bill, where they say, “Hey, if your employer’s spending less on insurance, on health insurance, on health benefits, that’s more money in your paycheck; that’s more money they can give to you.” So that money, even though they say the employer is paying it, you’re paying it, the employee’s paying it. The market rate for a person, when they calculate how much it’s going to cost to have an employee, they bill that into it. I know that from running a small non-profit organization. It’s built into the paycheck.
Now for seniors as a whole, which is often the way people look at this, they look at it as a generation, not as an individual- which, by the way, under the personal ownership that have been put forward, that would not be the case. If you put that money in it would be your property, and you could will it to whoever you wanted, whether that be a child or a charity, whoever that may be, your friend. But if you look at seniors as a whole, I’ve looked at such performing rate of return calculations, in other words, when you look at a generation- what the generation put in, and what they’ll get out- it’s a very difficult calculation because of the numerous tax increases for Social Security over the years, plus the cost-of-living adjustments, the earned-income tax credit, the nature of the tax-to-benefit ratio, make this a very complicated calculation, and thus I haven’t done it. But another important variable in all of this is what constitutes a reasonable rate of return? If these current retirees had taken their money that was put into Social Security and places this into moderately conservative investments over their working years, I would estimate they would get a lot more money back. However, if they simply put the money into bank accounts or CDs, the opposite may be true.
The point I usually make when explaining the Social Security system to retirees is the fact that the government has already spent all of the money they have paid into the system. They say, “Well, I’m due this money back, I paid it into the system.” Yeah, you paid it in, but it’s gone! Okay, either they spent it- either they paid it into the system and it was spent by the Social Security system, or the Social Security Administration [SSA] took that money, loaned it to the federal government, who then spent it. But the money’s gone, so all the money the current retirees are receiving is coming directly from the pockets of younger workers, and often these younger workers have far less money than a retiree they’re forced to support, and furthermore these workers, these current workers- guys like you, young guys like you- cannot possibly receive your full Social Security benefits unless workers younger than you are forced to pay even more in taxes. Far greater than these people put in, and far greater than you’ve put in.
DS: So, essentially, what you’re saying is it’s a vicious cycle of increasing poverty and increasingly lost revenue for each continuous worker.
JA: Not necessarily poverty, and not necessarily ongoing. The projections of the Social Security system show it eventually stabilizing, but we’ll get into that a little bit down the road. The thing people have to realize is Weiner says the program is solvent- first of all, it’s only solvent because of the massive tax increases of the past. At the outset of this program, the federal government published an informational pamphlet that said the following in regard to taxes- I’m quoting here- “And finally, beginning in 1949, 12 years from now, you and your employer will each pay three cents on each dollar you earn, up to three thousand dollars a year. That is the most you will ever pay.” Okay? This is a direct quote- this is a pamphlet put out by the federal government, and after adjusting for inflation, the maximum tax collection, the most you will ever pay, right now, is more than seven times this amount. So they have just basically- well, I don’t want to say “lie,” because that implies that they knew this would happen, but it seems pretty obvious to me, looking back with hindsight, which I guess isn’t a fair comparison, that there was no way this was going to hold out the way they projected it would, or promised it would.
DS: Okay. Well, related to that, the 2008 SSA report to Congress stated that-
JA: Dustin, I’m sorry for interrupting, I just want to make one more point on this. My fault- I told you to move on, and I wasn’t ready. We did some calculations here at Just Facts, and what we found is that if extra money had not been added to the Social Security program by increasing the tax rate above the levels specified in the original Social Security Act, the system would have been unable to pay full benefits since about 1980- or, the word that is used is “insolvent,” I’m not sure that is a proper word, but it wouldn’t have been able to pay the promised benefits. So I just wanted to add that in.
DS: The 2008 SSA report to Congress matches the Congressman’s claim in his column, which is that they will be able to pay 78, or 73, percent of promised benefits in 2080. [Correction: The actual quote from Rep. Weiner’s column was “Without any change, Social Security could cover three-quarters of benefits until 2083 — when people born today will be 73.”] That is what he claimed, and that is what the report said in 2008. But that, obviously, was before the crash, before the major disaster that happened in the economy in the last two years. Have you seen an updated report on whether those numbers are going to be changed?
JA: An updated report was due out earlier in 2010. The Obama administration delayed it until June 30. That is when the 2010 report will come out, which will contain information on Fiscal Year 2009, which runs from October 2008 until September 2009. That report is not out yet.
DS: All right. I was just curious. I guess I’ll just have to follow back up with you in about a month. The last question—could you just clarify your statement from earlier, about the program eventually being solvent? How would that happen, given that we are going to have 10,000 people a day retire for the next 20 years, and they are going to increasingly live longer, and use more money?
JA: Give me a moment here- I want to pull up the exact numbers.
DS: Sure, sure.
JA: If you look at the ratio of people paying taxes to the people receiving benefits, it has gone from 41.9 workers in 1945 paying into the system to one person receiving benefits. By 1970, that had dropped to 3.7 to one; in 2000, 3.4 to one; in 2007 3.3 to one; around 2030 it’s going to drop to 2.2 to one; and 2070 2.1 to one. According to projections.
Now, let me add that there are reasons to be suspicious of these projections. First of all, their track record from the past is not that great. Secondly, even- and I’m talking long-term track record—their short-term predictions have aroused my suspicions. Let me give you an example: in 2001, the Social Security Administration projected the trust fund balance would reach $2.54 trillion by the end of 2007. It actually reached $2.24 trillion- 13 percent lower than projected. Yet, if you compare the projections from the 2001 report and the 2008 report, they’re more optimistic in the 2008 report than in the 2001 report. So the financial condition of the Social Security program is worse than they projected, from sitting back from eight years before, but yet they are saying it’s going to be better in the future. All right? So in 2001 they were saying, by the time – let me see here- the expected annual deficit in 2075, we’d have to increase Social Security taxes by about 49 percent to cover that deficit. In 2008, they said we’ll only have to increase taxes by 32 percent.
When you dig deep into those reports, you see that the actuarial calculations- in other words, based upon the demographics; how many people are going to be working; how many people are going to be living; life expectancy- there are a whole bunch of variables that build into that- they change those numbers and say, “Well, we’re going to have more immigration, so there will be more people paying into the system.” But what these calculations don’t show is what will it then cost to pay those people when they retire? Does that make sense?
DS: Right, because they are assuming the immigrants won’t be receiving Social Security, not paying into it. They’re not double-counting.
JA: Well, they’re not assuming they won’t be receiving it- what they’re doing is they’re backloading the calculations and- let me get the quote here from the U.S. Treasury Department- the simple time horizon calculations (in other words, the 75-year unfunded liability, whatever it may be)- I’m quoting here, “Understates financial needs by capturing relatively more of the revenues from current and future workers and not capturing all of the benefits that are scheduled to be paid to them.” So, there are numerous ways of calculating what kind of shape the Social Security system is in. Weiner is doing his calculations, but there are other ways, more accurate ways, of doing this. I, personally, think the best way to look at it is the way private corporations are forced by law to look at their pension obligations, which is called the “Closed Group Unfunded Liability,” and when you look at these numbers, they are far more than the numbers that are commonly cited in the media, and by people like Congressman Weiner.
You’re looking at approximately $16 trillion projected shortfall. If you who’s in the system right now, what they’re going to take out in benefits, and what they’re going to pay in taxes, the Social Security system is about $16 trillion in the hole.
DS: Is that from the Treasury Report earlier this year?
JA: That is from the 2009 Treasury Report, yes.
DA: And that Treasury Report was very devastating.
JA: It’s an Obama administration document, okay, so we’re using his numbers.
DS: James, I really appreciate your time. If I have any more questions, may I follow up by e-mail?
JA: Of course.
*Originally published at The Daily Caller.
“They Punch You, I Punch Them”
Okay, so American conservatism has been a bit too into New Jersey governor Chris Christie…but who can help themselves when he makes speeches like this one? (H/T to Hot Air.)
It’s On: O’Reilly vs. Ingraham
Bill O’Reilly and Laura Ingraham go toe-to-toe over whether Janet Napolitano should be held responsible for the administration’s response to the oil spill. O’Reilly says to cut her some slack, and Ingraham says O’Reilly is drinking the Kool-Aid. It’s a great exchange, both for entertainment and perspectives on how government should handle crises. I think Ingraham won handily, though O’Reilly makes some good points. Ingraham DEFINITELY won for entertainment/showmanship.
H/T to Hot Air for the video.
Talk About Guts
Protesters in front of an Israeli embassy try to harass a lone Israel supporter, but the police stop them. The guy- he can’t be more than 25- sure has a lot of guts, and he knows his stuff. Other supporters of Israel show up later in the video, but the first five minutes or so star the lone supporter.
H/T to Hot Air for the link, and H/T to The Right Scoop for the video.
Creative & Cost-Effective
Jonah Goldberg wrote positively about Mickey Kaus, Senator Barbara Boxer’s (D-CA) primary opponent, a couple of weeks ago. It was a really good column. Yesterday, Goldberg followed up by posting Kaus’ very creative political ad on The Corner. The video is below:
Happy Memorial Day
Happy Memorial Day, everyone.May all Americans take a few moments today to thank a veteran; thank God; and reflect on why we have the freedoms we do.
May our leaders use the members of our military wisely; only when necessary; and only for the good of the nation and the world. May they be guided by the wisdom of God.
And may God Bless America, and may He bless those who fell in battle and otherwise.






