Senator Reid Is Going To Bite The Dust- Again

You saw it here first (or second, or third (twelfth?)- the point is, you saw it here). Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) is going to lose on the public option, and it’s going to crush health care reform, his ability to effectively lead the Democratic caucus and possibly his already-tough reelection. Here’s what’s going on:

On October 21, a delayed cloture vote on the so-called “Doc Fix” failed miserably in the Senate. Watching the vote happen with trepidation, I was very pleased that the vote went against the bill, which the CBO estimated would have cost over $240 billion?for the next?ten years. The vote was 47 in favor and 51 against, something of a surprise given Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid’s (D-NV) expectations of a victory in the vote. As David Frum and The Heritage Foundation explained, Democrats wanted to pass the bill outside of the final health care bill because doing so would?allow the a deficit-neutral bill to pass without noting the cost of the “Doc Fix” in the final legislation.?After the vote, it became clear that the most likely method of including the “Doc Fix” in this year’s health care bill would be to put it in the final bill, adding $247 (or so) billion to the final cost of the bill (or some variation thereof).

Normally, this wouldn’t be a huge blow to Reid- after all, losses happen all the time in Congress. However, he delayed the vote at least once (it was originally supposed to be held on October 19), and by putting?up and losing out on the?cloture vote, it’s becomes clear Reid was blindsided. Embarrassingly, just before the vote, Reid blamed the AMA for misleading him, which is a very unseemly way to act as a leader.

Now Reid is claiming he has the votes to pass the public option. Or, as is also claimed, he has the votes to pass the procedural step of getting the 60 votes necessary to move it forward, before only getting the required 51 to push the final bill through. To me, this smacks of desperation, making the claim so soon after the major loss regarding the “Doc Fix,” where he also thought he had the votes. Remember, too, that numerous Democrats have claimed opposition to the public option, and so has Republican Senator Olympia Snowe (R-ME), possibly the only Republican who will support a final Democratic health reform bill.

In the end, I suspect Reid will end up looking as bad as House Minority Leader John Boehner (R-OH) did after miscalculating the first House bailout vote last fall. Boehner barely held onto his leadership slot, but given the criticism of Reid offered by the influential Daily Kos (see here, for example) and other popular liberal voices in and out of Washington- in addition to the support for the public option by Senators such as Jay Rockefeller (D-WV) and Charles Schumer (D-NY)- I think Reid is setting himself up for a huge loss in leadership support.

In short, the public option will probably not make it into the final Senate bill, showing Reid’s inability to lead his caucus, costing him support from Senator Roland Burris’ (D-IL) and other Democrats for the final bill. This will shut down health reform, showing his caucus it may be time for “change” within the party leadership and also setting up a race in Nevada where Reid’s constituents may very well decide it’s time for “change” to come to Washington from their state.